Articles Factory - Interest Rate and Currency Trading

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Carry Trade is using one currency to purchase another currency to earn money from the difference between the interest rate of the two currencies. You can gain upto 4.5% annually if the currency exchange rate remain the stand for the two currencies.

Let’s start by talking about borrowing money from the bank. You went to a local bank A and borrow $100 in your country currency as say its United State Dollars. This bank A charge you 5% interest yearly. Your friend goes to another bank B and borrows $100 United State Dollar at 2% interest yearly. So if you want to borrow another $100 and your friend lend it to you at 5% interest (he took loan $100 from another bank). By simple calculation, your friend is effectively earning 3% interest. (5%-2%=3%). If you hold on to this for 1 year, you are carrying over your trades over a year and yield you 3% interest rate on the principle amount.

Sound similar to carry trade?

Imagine your friend is the broker. You put money into your trading account instead of borrowing from banks, your broker account will reflect $100 (assume the earlier example, you put in $100.) and this is in United State Dollars. Since you are holding currency in your trading account, it is incurring interest from the government that issue that currency. Eg United state is giving 2% interest. On the other hand Japan Yen is giving 0.5% interest. So if you borrow Japan Yen to buy equivalent United State Dollar, you will gain 1.5% interest yield every year. (Or use United State Dollar to Sell Japan Yen.)

So total how much you will earn?

Assume you use $100,000 and use it on the carry trade between United State Dollar and Japan Yen, giving you 1.5% yearly, which work out to be $1,500. If your trading account is using 100:1 leverage, you are effectively using your original $100,000 to buy and hold $10 million, which give you $150k a year. This work out to be 150% Return On Investment.
Can this work in real life?


Of course there are few factors to consider before your 150% Return On Investment can be realized. Avoid margin call, the currency fluctuation and the exchange rate between United State Dollar and Japan Yen. Let’s start by taking the positive direction, the exchange rate is rising for (assuming you get 5% more Japan Yen if you sell), the currency fluctuation is at minimum of near 0% drawdown and no margin call. You can earn $150k + $500k = $650k about 650% Return On Investment.

But this is always not the case

The currency rate went down (assuming you get 1% less Japan Yen if you sell). The currency fluctuated 1% drawdown. You earn $150k - $100k  = $50k. but before you can realized your profit of 50K, you are hit will margin call of 1% ($100k) and your trade are call out within a week, which leaves you almost zero. And I mean zero dollars. Now you see the risk of forex trading using leverage. Of course I simplified a lot of the calculation and conversion. But it is enough to make you understand the basic of carry trade and interest rate.

My recommendation

Always take charge by calculating money management into every trade you execute. Keep it to 10% of your capital. For the earlier example, you should only use $20K to buy $1 million forex currency which potentially could yield profit of $65k or loss $35k (assume drop of 5% with 1.5% interest difference on the carry trade).

Which currency then?

There no recommended currencies to buy, but you have to look out for currency with the highest interest rate, currency with the lowest interest rate and a trending up exchange rate when you sell back. (buy lowFind Article, sell high). Always remember to use money management calculation (assume 10% of your capital with 100:1 leverage)

source http://www.articlesfactory.com/articles/finance/interest-rate-and-currency-trading.html



Your plain-English guide to currency trading
Forex markets can be one of the fastest and most volatile financial markets to trade. Money can be lost or made in a matter of seconds, and forex markets are always moving. So how do you keep up? This hands-on, friendly guide shows you how the forex market really works, what moves it, and how you can actively trade in it — without losing your head!
  • All the world's a stage — get an easy-to-follow introduction to the global forex market and understand its size, scope, and players
  • Show me the money — take a look at the major fundamental and economic drivers that influence currency values and get the know-how to interpret data and events like a pro
  • Prepare for battle — discover different types of trading styles and make a concrete strategy and game plan before you act on anything
  • Pull the trigger — establish a position in the market, manage the trade while it's open, and close out on the most advantageous terms
Currency Trading For Dummies
Open the book and find:
  • Currency trading conventions and tools
  • Key characteristics of successful traders
  • Trading pitfalls to avoid and risk management rules to live by
  • How major currencies typically trade
  • Why it's important to be organized and prepared
  • The 411 on buying and selling simultaneously
  • Tips for understanding rollovers and interest rates
Learn to:
  • Grasp currency quotes
  • Capitalize on the foreign exchange market
  • Manage risk and reward
  • Use the forces that drive currency movements
  • Identify key traits of individual currency pairs

Review "It offers practical guidance and savvy tips.." (Hedge Fund Manager, Thursday 23rd August) "…gives readers a step by step guide (to) getting acquainted with the forex market and to making those killer transactions." (Professional Pensions, Thursday 30th August 2007) --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title. From the Back Cover Features forex market guidelines and sample trading plans The fun and easy way® to get started in currency trading Want to capitalize on the growing forex market? This nuts-and-bolts guide gives you a step-by-step action plan for understanding and trading the forex market. It offers practical guidance and savvy tips in everything from comprehending currency quotes to using leverage, trading with fundamentals, and navigating technical analysis. Identify trading opportunities Understand what drives the market Choose a trading broker Execute a successful trade Minimize risk and maximize profit Analyze currency charts --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title. About the Author Brian Dolan has worked for more than 20 years in the forex market as a currency trader and analyst. As the Chief Currency Strategist at FOREX.com, Brian oversees fundamental and technical analysis and is a frequent resource for the financial media on currency developments



An accessible guide to trading the fast-moving foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market, or forex, was once dominated by global banks, hedge funds, and multinational corporations, but that has all changed with Internet technology and the advent of online forex brokers. Now, hundreds of thousands of traders and investors around the world can participate in this profitable field.
Written by forex expert Kathy Lien, The Little Book of Currency Trading will show you how to effectively invest and trade in today's biggest market. Page by page, she describes the multitude of opportunities possible in the forex market, from short-term price swings to long-term trends, and details practical products that can help you achieve success, such as currency-based ETFs.
  • Explains the forces that drive currencies and provides strategies to profit from them
  • Reveals how you can use various currencies to reduce risk and take advantage of global trends
  • Examines financial vehicles that can help you make money without having to monitor the market every day

The Little Book of Currency Trading opens the world of currency trading and investing to anyone interested in entering this dynamic arena.

The Little Book of Currency Trading: How to Make Big Profits in the World of Forex (Little Books. Big Profits) 

Q&A with Author Kathy Lien


What is the most effective way for investors to make money in the currency market?
The best way to make money in the currency market is to think of it as an investment. When most people see advertisements by forex brokers, their eyes start to widen on the offers of high leverage and the possibility of tremendous returns. It is attractive and almost irresistible. However, even though currencies can provide attractive returns, leverage is a sharp double-edged sword. High returns come with high risks, which can be suitable for some but not all investors. Currencies are a great asset class for people looking to diversify their portfolios. And throughout the year, currency values can increase or decrease anywhere between 5 to 25 percent. With U.S. Treasuries yielding next to nothing and our bank accounts earning only a few cents on the dollar, most of us would be satisfied with 5 percent, let alone 25 percent return. There is no need to use excessive leverage - taking it slow and easy increases the chance of seeing your account grow.

Over the past 10 years, the forex market has evolved significantly and competition has brought many benefits to new forex traders. Most forex brokers will offer free education and practice accounts, and new traders should take advantage of them because the most effective way of making money in the currency market is learning how the market works and to practice, practice, practice before dumping significant capital into a live account.

From a more practical perspective, there is no need for monogamy when it comes to trading currencies. Take the best of both worlds and combine both fundamental and technical analysis. The Little Book of Currency Trading will teach you how to identify the big stories affecting currencies and how to pinpoint places to enter and exit your trades. You may know more about currencies than you actually think. If you have ever traveled to another country or if you love to read about political or economic developments abroad, then you have already gotten a taste of what moves currencies. Start by trading what you know, and at the onset, bank your profits when you have them to build your confidence and your knowledge of how the currency market moves.

What indicators or economic data should investors monitor to identify a potential profit opportunity in the currency market?
News moves the markets and economic data is a consistent event risk that can provide daily trading opportunities by driving meaningful moves in a currency. However not all economic releases are equally important, and it is essential to be able to delineate between what will and will not move the currency. As a rule of thumb, put yourself into the shoes of a central bank -- whatever the central bank watches is typically what can move the currency because it can help determine whether the central bank will raise or lower interest rates. This includes employment, retail sales and inflation reports. The best trades are the ones that are also aligned with the current prevailing trend and sentiment in the foreign exchange, something that the Little Book will teach you how to do.

What is the learning process for an individual investor -- who already has experience trading stocks -- in the currency market?
Trade what you know. If you trade stocks using technical analysis, you can do the same in the currency market. In fact, technical analysis is one of the most popular ways to analyze currencies. It will be important to learn about the unique characteristics of the market, including round the clock trading and general trading mechanics. But after that, you can use Fibonacci retracements the same way you do in equities in currencies. For traders who love to follow developments in Europe or Asia -- once again, trade what you know. If you travel to London often and have a good idea of how the U.K. economy is doing, your outlook can be translated into a currency trade. The same is true for traders who have an opinion on whether the Eurozone will go bust due to their debt crisis. Currencies just offer another vehicle to express the views that as stock traders, you may already have.

Historically, the currency market often produces long-term trends that provide a great opportunity for profit. Do you think that will continue in the years ahead?
Currencies have been around for hundreds of years in one form or another and are little confidence measures of a country. If you believe that business cycles repeat themselves -- with expansion followed by contraction and contraction followed by expansion -- then the long term trends of currencies will continue to be evident because the optimism or pessimism of investors usually follows the business cycles of each country. The reason why currencies have had such strong trends in the past few decades is because in general, the outlook for a country gets progressively better or worse, and this dynamic is reflected in the value of the currency. Using a unique easy to understand tool, the Little Book will show you unique ways to join the trend and minimize the risk of chasing a move that quickly fades.

The Little Book of Currency Trading: How to Make Big Profits in the World of Forex (Little Books. Big Profits)


The guide for reading long-term trends in the foreign currency market
To thrive in the marketplace traders must anticipate, enter, and stay with trends in the foreign exchange market.
In this much-needed guide top forex, expert Greg Michalowski clearly explains the attributes of successful traders, and shows how traders can set themselves up for success by drafting an explicit mission statement and game plan. The book also contains the tools and techniques traders need to read the markets and identify when a market is in a trend. Michalowski shows traders how to enter an emerging trend, how to manage the position, and how to exit the position most effectively.
  • Includes the technical tools needed to invest in the foreign exchange market: moving averages, trendlines, and Fibonacci levels
  • Shows how to identify a trend and stick with the trend through its duration
  • Written by Greg Michalowski who was cited by SmartMoney magazine as a "go to" source for making money moves
With this book, Michalowski offers an important resource for identifying and riding out long-term trends in the volatile foreign currency.
 

From the Inside Flap

Making money while limiting risk is something every good trader strives to do. But in order to achieve this goal you need a firm understanding of financial markets, as well as the tools that will allow you to effectively apply sound trading strategies in them.
Nobody understands this better than author Greg Michalowski—a market veteran who has spent the last ten years with retail forex brokerage company FXDD—and now, with Attacking Currency Trends, he shares his experience in this field with you. Following a step-by-step approach and progressing in a logical manner, this practical guide will help swing trading results in your favor by showing you how to better anticipate and attack the trend in currencies.
Divided into two comprehensive parts, this reliable resource opens with a detailed discussion of how to build a solid foundation for your currency trading. Here, you'll become familiar with the attributes of all successful traders and discover the essential characteristics of retail currency traders. Along the way, you'll also be introduced to specific elements that will allow you to excel in attacking forex trends—namely a mission statement, a game plan, and rules.
After explaining how to develop a solid foundation, the book transitions into the technical tools and strategies used to anticipate and manage forex trends, define risk, and control fear. You'll gain valuable insights into three main charting tools—moving averages, trend lines and remembered lines, and Fibonacci retracements—and learn why successful currency traders look at short-, intermediate-, and long-term time periods equally and trade using all three. Relevant examples are also included, highlighting how trading does not always have to be complicated.
Success in currency trading, as in any business, is based on building the right foundation and using the proper tools. Combining his years of trading experience with his knowledge of retail traders and the nuances of the currency market, Greg Michalowski has created an accessible trading guide that will help you minimize risk, keep fear in check, and capture consistent profits in today's dynamic currency market.

From the Back Cover

Praise for ATTACKING CURRENCY TRENDS
"Greg has put together a comprehensive road map for traders, constructing a sound,logical trading methodology from start to finish. This book succeeds in getting the reader to think and act like a professional currency trader. Trading is a serious business and requires serious planning—and that's exactly what you'll get with Attacking Currency Trends."—Ed Ponsi, Author of Forex Patterns and Probabilities
"Although Greg admits having a true risk phobia, it's evident he possesses the skills not only to capitalize in the currency market, but to transmit his original and yet simple trading approach. A myriad of illustrated examples and clues throughout the text support his educational forte. A market profile explanation right at the start of a forex book is indeed an excellent conceptual backbone readers will appreciate."—Francesc Riverola, CEO and Founder, FXstreet.com
"Attacking Currency Trends provides a simple and logical approach to trading forex that will help any trader make better decisions about when and how to trade. Greg's rules for trading forex trends will be especially helpful to traders looking for a disciplined approachto this massive market. Armed with this information, rookie and veteran traders alike will have the confidence needed to profit from opportunities found on —and off—their charts."—Tim Bourquin, TraderInterviews.com
"Greg Michalowski's Attacking Currency Trends not only provides in-depth coverage of how to anticipate and attack trends in the battle to successfully trade currencies, Greg also empowers traders to be proactive and protect themselves by having a trading game plan with guidelines. This is a must-read for retail traders new to FX and those looking to develop further as successful market players."—Julie Sinha, broadcaster, ForexTV
"I love the down-to-earth simplicity of this book. Attacking Currency Trends puts the truth of effective trading into a format that is executable and understandable. This book will instantly become a must-have reference work for the retail trader."—Scott Cisco, co-founder and President, EuodooTrading.com
"Greg has pulled from his vast experience in currency markets and crafted a book that will lead the retail trader from understanding to successful action. He provides a rich set of tools here and clearly organizes and communicates them. Very nicely done."—Dr. Phil Pearlman, Executive Editor, StockTwits

About the Author

Greg Michalowski is the chief currency and trading analyst for FXDD. Prior to joining FXDD, he was an assistant vice president and trader in the treasury / funding area with Citibank in New York, a vice president and interest rate derivatives trader at Citibank in London, and a vice president and trader in the banks funding department at Credit Suisse First Boston. Michalowski maintains a daily market commentary and currency analysis website at fxdd.com.His market comments are quoted in the financial pressby Bloomberg.com, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal,and he has written for various print and online trading publications, including eForex, Equities magazine,forexstreet.com, stocktwits.com, and forexfactory.com.His twitter site, twitter.com/gregmikefx, was one of thirteen cited by SmartMoney magazine as a "go to" source for making money moves.

Attacking Currency Trends: How to Anticipate and Trade Big Moves in the Forex Market (Wiley Trading)

1 comment:

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